The Prudence of Mexican Consumers

The ENIGH household surveys are used to investigate the strength of the precautionary motive in Mexico, using pseudo-panel methods to obtain estimates of the coefficient of relative prudence for Mexican consumers. The method provided accounts for the aggregation problems arising from unequally-spaced surveys. The low levels of prudence found can help explain why consumers had insufficient savings to smooth consumption during the peso crisis. Differences in prudence may also explain the low household savings rates in Mexico compared to the high savings rates in East Asian countries such as Taiwan.prudence, pseudo-panel, aggregation

A profile of the world's young developing country migrants

The paper uses individual level census and household survey data to present a rich profile of the young developing migrants around the world. Youth are found to comprise a large share of all migrants, particularly in migration to other developing countries, with the probability of migration peaking in the late teens or early twenties. The paper examines in detail the age and gender composition of migrants, whether young migrants move alone or with a parent or spouse, their participation in schooling and work in the destination country, the types of jobs they do, and the age of return migration. The results suggest a high degree of commonality in the youth migrant experience across a number of destination countries. In particular, developing country youth tend to work in similar occupations all around the world, and are more concentrated in these occupations than older migrants or native youth. Nevertheless, there is also considerable heterogeneity among youth migrants: 29 percent of 18 to 24 year olds are attending school in their destination country, but another 29 percent are not working or in school. This illustrates both the potential of migration for building human capital, and the fear that lack of integration prevents it from being used.Population Policies,Youth and Governance,Adolescent Health,Gender and Development,Population&Development

Paper walls are easier to tear down : passport costs and legal barriers to emigration

Increased attention to the development potential of international migration has led to calls for greater global cooperation and for industrial countries to consider temporary worker programs and other options for increasing the number of immigrants admitted. But less attention has been devoted to policies that migrant-sending countries pursue that impact on the ability of people to emigrate under the existing system. This paper documents the existence and impact of two such policies: passport costs and legal restrictions on emigration. New data collected on passport costs in 127 countries reveals enormous variation in the cost of a passport from one country to the next. One in every 10 countries in the sample is found to have passport costs exceeding 10 percent of annual per capita income. High passport costs are found to be associated with poor governance, especially in terms of the quality of the bureaucracy, and with lower levels of migration. Countries that place legal restrictions on the rights of women to emigrate are also found to have lower migration rates than countries with similar income and population levels. These findings suggest there is scope for some developing countries to receive greater benefits from migration by tearing down the paper walls they place around their own citizens.Governance Indicators,Economic Theory&Research,Country Strategy&Performance,Human Migrations&Resettlements,Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement

Poverty traps and nonlinear income dynamics with measurement error and individual heterogeneity

Theories of poverty traps stand in sharp contrast to the view that anybody can make it through hard work and thrift. However, empirical detection of poverty traps is complicated by the lack of long panels, measurement error, and attrition. This paper shows how dynamic pseudo-panel methods can overcome these difficulties, allowing estimation of non-linear income dynamics and testing for the presence of poverty traps. The paper explicitly allows for individual heterogeneity in income dynamics to account for the possibility that particular groups of individuals may face traps, even if the average individual does not. These methods are used to examine the evidence for a poverty trap in labor earnings, income, and expenditure in Mexico and are compared to panel data estimates from a short rotating panel. The results do find evidence of nonlinearities in household income dynamics and demonstrate large bias in the panel data estimates. Nevertheless, even after allowing for heterogeneity and accounting for measurement error, the paper finds no evidence of the existence of a poverty trap for any group in the sample.Inequality,Services&Transfers to Poor,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis

Earnings mobility and measurement error : a pseudo-panel approach

The degree of mobility in incomes is often seen as an important measure of the equality of opportunity in a society and of the flexibility and freedom of its labor market. But estimation of mobility using panel data is biased by the presence of measurement error and non-random attrition from the panel. This paper shows that dynamic pseudo-panel methods can be used to consistently estimate measures of absolute and conditional mobility in the presence of non-classical measurement errors. These methods are applied to data on earnings from a Mexican quarterly rotating panel. Absolute mobility in earnings is found to be very low in Mexico, suggesting that the high level of inequality found in the cross-section will persist over time. However, the paper finds conditional mobility to be high, so that households are able to recover quickly from earnings shocks. These findings suggest a role for policies which address underlying inequalities in earnings opportunities.Inequality,Housing&Human Habitats,Roads&Highways,Economic Theory&Research,Rural Poverty Reduction

The dynamics of tethers and space-webs

The thesis 'The dynamics of tethers and space-webs' investigates the motion of the Motorized Momentum Exchange Tether (MMET) on an inclined orbit, and while deploying and retracting symmetric payloads. The MMET system is used as a basis for examining the stability of space-webs using a triangular structure of tethers while rotating. The motion of small robots is introduced as they move on the space-web, and their motions are found to influence the behaviour of the structure. Several methods of limiting the destabilising influences of the robots are considered, and are found to stabilise the web in most circumstances. A structured method for describing the rotations of a tether system is outlined, and different rotational systems are compared. This lays the foundation for the further chapters examining MMET dynamics on an inclined orbit and while deploying and recovering the payloads. Lagrange's equations are generated for the three cases, and are solved using standard numerical integration techniques. To emphasise the practical uses of the MMET system, several missions are analysed by using the system as a re-usable launcher for micro-satellite payloads

Consumption Growth in a Booming Economy: Taiwan 1976-96

Consumption and income have both grown rapidly in Taiwan over the past forty years, with younger birth cohorts experiencing faster growth. The long upward trend in consumption presents a strong challenge to the consumption smoothing predictions of the Permanent Income Hypothesis. We investigate the extent to which consumption theory can account for this trend in an environment where a large majority of households have high savings rates. Household survey data from 1976-96 are used to estimate dynamic pseudo-panel models with inter-cohort heterogeneity. We evaluate the impacts on consumption of migration, mortality, household composition, liquidity constraints, unanticipated aggregate shocks, hyperbolic discounting, habit formation and precautionary saving. Taiwanese consumption growth is found to result from high levels of prudence, with the faster consumption growth of younger cohorts attributed to their greater participation in industries with more earnings risk.Classification-JEL: O12; O16; E21; C23consumption growth; pseudo-panel; prudence; Taiwan

Business practices in small firms in developing countries

Management has a large effect on the productivity of large firms. But does management matter in micro and small firms, where the majority of the labor force in developing countries works? We develop 26 questions that measure business practices in marketing, stock-keeping, recordkeeping, and financial planning. These questions have been administered in surveys in Bangladesh, Chile, Ghana, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria and Sri Lanka. We show that variation in business practices explains as much of the variation in outcomes – sales, profits and labor productivity and TFP – in microenterprises as in larger enterprises. Panel data from three countries indicate that better business practices predict higher survival rates and faster sales growth. The association of business practices with firm outcomes is robust to including numerous measures of the owner’s human capital. We find that owners with higher human capital, children of entrepreneurs, and firms with employees employ better business practices